SCOTT'S WORLD OF WEATHER

OHIO TORNADO HISTORY

Scott Sabol

We just started our "Weather Class" on FOX8.com a few weeks ago and its been a tremendous success.

One email I received from Mrs. Morris's Class at Rogers School asked "How many tornadoes have occurred in Ohio over the last 5 years?" I did some research on the web and found a tornado database which lists confirmed tornadoes in each state. I found the answer (72 if you were wondering) but the tornado question got me to thinking about tornado history and whether there is a connection to EL NINO or LA NINA at least statistically.

Remember what El Nino is? El Nino is a shift in the ocean temperatures in the tropical Pacific so that the eastern Pacific water is warmer than normal and the western Pacific is colder than normal. La Nina is the exact opposite. Cooler water in the east; warmer water in the west. Usually these changes occur every 2 to 7 years, each of which lasting anywhere from 12 to 18 months. The El Nino event of 1997-1998 was widely publicized due to its intensity and its effect on global weather patterns.

Back to Ohio. here is the list of tornadoes per year since 1989:

1989: 19
1990: 32
1991: 9
1992: 63 (41 over a 2 day period in July)
1993: 5
1994: 9
1995: 7
1996: 10
1997: 15
1998: 26
1999: 22
2000: 27
2001: 9
2002: 34 (27 on 11/10)
2003: 13
2004: 9
2005: 4
2006: 27
2007: 13
2008: 15
2009: 4 (As of May 25th)

Ohio tornadoes - Last 25 years

Since 42% of the tornadoes in Ohio occurred in APRIL, MAY and JUNE over the last 20 years, we now examine the EL NINO/LA NINA conditions each year in those months. The years with more than 20 tornadoes are in bold face. SL = Strong La Nina, N = Neutral, SE - Strong El Nino

1989: 19
1990: 32
1991: 9
1992: 63 (41 over a 2 day period in July)
1993: 5
1994: 9
1995: 7
1996: 10
1997: 15
1998: 26
1999: 22
2000: 27
2001: 9
2002: 34 (27 on 11/10)
2003: 13
2004: 9
2005: 4
2006: 27
2007: 13
2008: 15
2009: 4 (As of May 25th)

Map of Northeastern Ohio tornadoes since 1989.

7 of the 20 years in question had 20 or more tornadoes. 4 of the 7 occurred in years where there was a strong El NINO or LA NINA. The other 3 occurred in neutral conditions. The statistical chances seem 50/50 for a higher than average tornado year when an EL NINO/LA NINA is present. Historically, severe weather in the middle of the country is more intense during strong La Nina years. Often, these conditions in the middle of the country can persist into Ohio but its not a foregone conclusion that this would happen during a LA NINA. With these chances, the EL NINO/LA NINA connection is not diffinitive.

So far in Spring 2009, there is no EL NINO or LA NINA. If you have a phobia of severe weather/thunderstorms this shouldn't be an extraordinarily active summer with thunderstorms/severe weather. We should expect a normal summer (June through August) with 15 to 20 days of thunderstorms. Let's hope this does not include tornadoes.

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Speaking of tornadoes, back on May 31, 1985, a tornado outbreak occurred in northeastern Ohio, western Pennsylvania and New York and portions of Canada. The most intense tornado touched down near the Ravenna Arsenal in Portage County and continued on the ground for almost 50 miles. It devasted Niles, Newton Falls, Hubbard, killed dozens of people and continued into Pennsylvania. This tornado was an EF-5, the strongest of all tornadoes with winds of more than 300 mph and a width of a mile and a half. This was the last EF-5 tornado to hit Ohio and the first since the Xenia tornado back in 1974.

This picture was taken by Mike Zahurak in the Village Center Plaza parking lot. He had only 4 pictures left in his camera when the EF-5 tornado struck.