FIRST, THERE IS NEVER A "MILD" WINTER IN NORTHEASTERN OHIO. IT ALWAYS GETS COLD AND IT ALWAYS SNOWS. ITS THE DEGREE AND LENGTH OF COLD AND THE AMOUNT OF SNOW AND DURATION THAT ITS ON THE GROUND THAT DETERMINES, IN OUR MINDS, IF ITS A COLD/HARSH WINTER AND A "MILD" WINTER.
LAST WINTER, OUR SNOWFALL WAS NORMAL IN OCTOBER, ABOVE NORMAL IN DECEMBER, BELOW NORMAL IN DECEMBER. JANUARY WAS THE SECOND SNOWIEST IN 138 YEARS OF RECORD KEEPING. HALF OF LAST YEAR'S SNOW OCCURED IN JANUARY. FEBRUARY WAS NEAR NORMAL.
THIS PAST SUMMER, TWO VOLCANIC ERUPTIONS OCCURED. ONE IN RUSSIA.
THE OTHER IN ALASKA.
THIS CAUSED THE ARCTIC COLD TO ESTABLISH ITSELF IN JUNE AND JULY MARKING ONE OF THE COLDEST SUMMERS IN RECENT MEMORY. THIS ARCTIC HIGH (COLD DOME) WILL BE STRONGER THIS YEAR.
OVER THE LAST TWO YEARS, THE SUN HAS BEEN "QUIET". THIS MEANS THAT THE SUN HAS BEEN VOID OF SUNSPOTS. LITTLE OR NO SUNSPOTS MEANS LESS SOLAR ENERGY.
A QUIET SUN IS DIRECTLY RELATED TO COLDER TEMPERATURES.
A WEAK EL NINO PATTERN IN THE TROPICAL PACIFIC OCEAN IS EXPECTED THROUGH DECEMBER. THIS ALTERS THE JET STREAM OVER THE US KEEPING IT ACTIVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN STATES. NORMALLY, THIS WOULD PRODUCE A SUPER-MILD WINTER WITH MUCH BELOW SNOWFALL. HOWEVER, EL NINO IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AFTER THE 1ST OF THE YEAR.
THE ARCTIC AND NORTH ATLANTIC WILL JOCKEY FOR POSITION. THE NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION GUIDES STORM TRACKS ACROSS THE EASTERN US. IT CHANGES FREQUENTLY SO ITS HARDER TO PREDICT THAN THE ARCTIC. THE ARCTIC OSCILLATION ALTERNATES BETWEEN COLD OUTBREAKS AND NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
SINCE THE EL NINO IS WEAKENING (ALONG WITH OTHER TROPICAL PATTERNS) THE ARCTIC OSCILLATION JANUARY THROUGH MARCH IS EXPECTED TO BE STRONGLY FAVORING COLD AIR OUTBREAKS THAT LAST LONGER THAN USUAL.
WHAT DOES ALL OF THIS MEAN?
OVERALL, THE WINTER WILL AVERAGE OUT TO A NORMAL WINTER WHEN IT COMES TO HIGH TEMPERATURES.
...AND NEAR NORMAL SNOWFALL.
BREAKING IT DOWN FURTHER, WE WILL HAVE MILD STRETCHES THROUGH THE END OF THE YEAR. THE PATTERN WILL TURN MORE COLD IN EARLY 2010 WITH SMALL, SOMEWHAT MILD BREAKS IN BETWEEN.
HERE ARE THE NORMAL SEASONAL SNOW AMOUNTS.
HOW ABOUT THE NUMBER OF SNOW STORMS?
COMPARED TO LAST YEAR, THE WINTER OF 2009-2010 WILL AVERAGE LESS ALBERTA CLIPPERS AND LESS LAKE EFFECT SNOW EVENTS.
WE'LL REVISIT THE WINTER FORECAST IN LATE JANUARY OR EARLY FEBRUARY.
LAST WINTER, OUR SNOWFALL WAS NORMAL IN OCTOBER, ABOVE NORMAL IN DECEMBER, BELOW NORMAL IN DECEMBER. JANUARY WAS THE SECOND SNOWIEST IN 138 YEARS OF RECORD KEEPING. HALF OF LAST YEAR'S SNOW OCCURED IN JANUARY. FEBRUARY WAS NEAR NORMAL.
THIS PAST SUMMER, TWO VOLCANIC ERUPTIONS OCCURED. ONE IN RUSSIA.
THE OTHER IN ALASKA.
THIS CAUSED THE ARCTIC COLD TO ESTABLISH ITSELF IN JUNE AND JULY MARKING ONE OF THE COLDEST SUMMERS IN RECENT MEMORY. THIS ARCTIC HIGH (COLD DOME) WILL BE STRONGER THIS YEAR.
OVER THE LAST TWO YEARS, THE SUN HAS BEEN "QUIET". THIS MEANS THAT THE SUN HAS BEEN VOID OF SUNSPOTS. LITTLE OR NO SUNSPOTS MEANS LESS SOLAR ENERGY.
A QUIET SUN IS DIRECTLY RELATED TO COLDER TEMPERATURES.
A WEAK EL NINO PATTERN IN THE TROPICAL PACIFIC OCEAN IS EXPECTED THROUGH DECEMBER. THIS ALTERS THE JET STREAM OVER THE US KEEPING IT ACTIVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN STATES. NORMALLY, THIS WOULD PRODUCE A SUPER-MILD WINTER WITH MUCH BELOW SNOWFALL. HOWEVER, EL NINO IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AFTER THE 1ST OF THE YEAR.
THE ARCTIC AND NORTH ATLANTIC WILL JOCKEY FOR POSITION. THE NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION GUIDES STORM TRACKS ACROSS THE EASTERN US. IT CHANGES FREQUENTLY SO ITS HARDER TO PREDICT THAN THE ARCTIC. THE ARCTIC OSCILLATION ALTERNATES BETWEEN COLD OUTBREAKS AND NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
SINCE THE EL NINO IS WEAKENING (ALONG WITH OTHER TROPICAL PATTERNS) THE ARCTIC OSCILLATION JANUARY THROUGH MARCH IS EXPECTED TO BE STRONGLY FAVORING COLD AIR OUTBREAKS THAT LAST LONGER THAN USUAL.
WHAT DOES ALL OF THIS MEAN?
OVERALL, THE WINTER WILL AVERAGE OUT TO A NORMAL WINTER WHEN IT COMES TO HIGH TEMPERATURES.
...AND NEAR NORMAL SNOWFALL.
BREAKING IT DOWN FURTHER, WE WILL HAVE MILD STRETCHES THROUGH THE END OF THE YEAR. THE PATTERN WILL TURN MORE COLD IN EARLY 2010 WITH SMALL, SOMEWHAT MILD BREAKS IN BETWEEN.
HERE ARE THE NORMAL SEASONAL SNOW AMOUNTS.
HOW ABOUT THE NUMBER OF SNOW STORMS?
COMPARED TO LAST YEAR, THE WINTER OF 2009-2010 WILL AVERAGE LESS ALBERTA CLIPPERS AND LESS LAKE EFFECT SNOW EVENTS.
WE'LL REVISIT THE WINTER FORECAST IN LATE JANUARY OR EARLY FEBRUARY.
